By Ed Maltby, NODPA Executive Director
The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has published estimated national organic fluid product sales, for July and August 2024, compiled with data from the Federal Milk Marketing Order. In July, the data shows a continued increase in the sales of organic Whole Milk packaged fluid products of 17.1% over July 2023, and the August data shows sales at 11.1% over August 2023. There was a 6.3% increase in organic Fat Reduced Milk in July 2024 over July 2023, but a 0.1% increase in August 2024 over August 2023.
Year to date, August 2024, organic fluid milk sales are 6.6% higher than the same period in 2023. Anecdotally, organic dairy products with the extra Grass Fed certification are responsible for a portion of the increase in sales. The supply of Grass Fed organic milk is short, reflected by Maple Hill moving its Pay Price to $45/cwt by the end of 2025 (more details later).
Total US sales of organic fluid milk products were 257 million pounds in July 2024, with organic Whole Milk sales at 137 million pounds, and sales of organic Fat Reduced Milk at 120 million pounds. In August 2024, total sales of organic packaged milk were 261 million pounds, with sales of organic packaged Whole Milk at 138 million pounds, and sales of organic Fat Reduce Milk at 122 million pounds. Reports from producers are that organic milk is still short in the Northeast, with fluid milk retail sales increasing.
The average retail price for organic milk has ranged from $3.81 per half gallon in 2008 to an average of $4.81 year-to-date in 2024. In September 2024, the average national retail price was $4.87, and in October it was $4.84. In October 2024, the highest retail price was in Pittsburgh PA at $6.69 per ½ gallon, and the lowest in 8 separate cities was $3.99 per ½ gallon. The retail prices in other Northeast cities were $5.01 in Boston, MA; $5.13 in Hartford, CT; $5.24 in New York, NY and $4.34 in Syracuse, NY.
Estimated Fluid Milk Products Sales Reports
|
Product Name |
Sales of Organic Fluid Milk |
Change from |
||
|
|
Jul-24 |
2024 Year to date |
Jul-23 |
Year to date |
|
Million pounds |
Percent |
|||
|
Organic Whole Milk |
136 |
914 |
17.1% |
13.3% |
|
Flavored Whole milk |
1 |
6 |
-14.4% |
8.1% |
|
Organic Reduced-Fat Milk (2%) |
81 |
559 |
5.9% |
4.3% |
|
Organic Low-Fat Milk (1%) |
20 |
147 |
14.0% |
-7.1% |
|
Organic Fat-Free Milk Skim |
12 |
79 |
-2.9% |
-11.0% |
|
Organic Flavored Fat-Reduced Milk |
6 |
47 |
6.9% |
3.4% |
|
Other Fluid Organic Milk Products |
0 |
2 |
49.8% |
12.4% |
|
Total Fat Reduced Milk |
120 |
832 |
6.3% |
0.4% |
|
Total Organic Milk Products |
257 |
1,754 |
11.7% |
6.8% |
|
|
||||
|
Product Name |
Sales of Organic Fluid Milk |
Change from |
||
|
|
Aug-24 |
2024 Year to date |
Aug-23 |
Year to date |
|
|
Million pounds |
Percent |
||
|
Organic Whole Milk |
137 |
1,052 |
11.1% |
13.0% |
|
Flavored Whole milk |
1 |
6 |
-19.7% |
3.6% |
|
Organic Reduced-Fat Milk (2%) |
85 |
643 |
7.3% |
4.7% |
|
Organic Low-Fat Milk (1%) |
20 |
168 |
-18.5% |
-8.7% |
|
Organic Fat-Free Milk Skim |
11 |
90 |
-7.0% |
-10.6% |
|
Organic Flavored Fat-Reduced Milk |
6 |
53 |
-3.2% |
2.5% |
|
Other Fluid Organic Milk Products |
0 |
3 |
21.4% |
13.2% |
|
Total Fat Reduced Milk |
122 |
954 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
Total Organic Milk Products |
261 |
2,014 |
5.50% |
6.6% |
Data may not add due to rounding to the nearest million pounds
Federal Milk Market Order 1, in the Northeast, reports utilization of types of organic milk reported by pool plants for packaged products sold and packaged in the FMMO 1. FMMO 1 reported that in August 2024, fluid organic Whole Milk utilization totaled 18.52 million pounds, 16% higher than the previous year of 15.55 million pounds. In August 2024, the utilization of fluid organic Reduced Fat Milk, 15.61 million pounds, was down from 18.14 million pounds in August 2023. Total organic packaged milk utilization of 34.07 million pounds in August 2024 was up slightly from 33.75 million pounds in August 2023. In September 2024, organic Whole Milk utilization was 17.21 million pounds, an increase of approximately 17% on August 2023, which was 14.67 million pounds. In September 2024, organic Reduced Fat Milk utilization was 14.50 million pounds, higher than the 13.65 in September 2023. Total organic packaged milk in September 2024 of 31.72 million pounds was up from 28.52 million pounds in September 2023. Year to date, January to September 2024, there was a total of 308.72 million pounds of packaged organic fluid milk sold in FMMO 1, an increase of 2.2% over the same period in 2023. In August 2024, there was 136.20 million pounds of milk marketed as Class 1 in FMMO 1 from outside the FMMO 1 marketing area, and in September 2024 there was 132.42 million pounds in the same category, approximately 18.5% of total Class 1 utilization in the Order.
|
UTILIZATION OF ORGANIC FLUID MILK PRODUCTS AND CREAM BY POOL PLANTS (Million pounds) in FMMO 1 (Northeast) not including packaged out of order |
|||||
|
Month |
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2024 |
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2023 |
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2022 |
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2021 |
Fluid retail Organic Milk 2020 |
|
JANUARY |
34.93 |
37.00 |
29.14 |
31.32 |
23.93 |
|
FEBRUARY |
31.50 |
31.65 |
33.65 |
31.56 |
26.69 |
|
MARCH |
34.82 |
37.37 |
31.56 |
31.87 |
27.90 |
|
APRIL |
35.68 |
31.51 |
33.23 |
28.97 |
29.35 |
|
MAY |
38.95 |
36.24 |
30.49 |
29.72 |
28.25 |
|
JUNE |
31.51 |
34.59 |
31.53 |
28.41 |
26.90 |
|
JULY |
35.54 |
30.75 |
29.44 |
25.50 |
26.70 |
|
AUGUST |
34.07 |
33.75 |
32.12 |
27.18 |
24.70 |
|
SEPTEMBER |
31.72 |
28.32 |
35.00 |
30.26 |
29.70 |
|
OCTOBER |
33.54 |
34.83 |
29.47 |
25.78 |
|
|
NOVEMBER |
31.19 |
31.13 |
31.07 |
24.47 |
|
|
DECEMBER |
33.56 |
33.78 |
31.36 |
28.13 |
|
|
ANNUAL |
399.47 |
385.90 |
356.68 |
322.50 |
|
Central Federal Order (FO) 32, Mideast FO 33, and California FO 51, have also started publishing reports of the utilization of organic milk separately by month and year. In August, the highest volume of organic milk reported as Class 1 was in the Central FO 32, with 55.63 million followed by California with 40.24 million pounds and the northeast with 34.07 million pounds. In September 2024, Central FO produced 50.68 million pounds, California produced 41.74 million pounds, and the northeast produced 31.72 million pounds. With only 9.43 million pounds of all Class1 milk coming into the order and 93% of organic milk packaged in California is consumed in the state, the California organic fluid numbers are the most accurate of any order.
The chart below shows a consistent volume of organic packaged milk marketed out of Order FO 32, more than is packaged in either FO 1 or FO 51. Sales of packaged organic fluid milk are increasing nationally by about 6%. Handlers in the Central FO sold 392.48 million pounds of organic packaged milk outside of their order in 2023, year to date, and in 2024, year to date, they have sold 424.53 million pounds, an increase of 7.5%.
|
UTILIZATION OF ORGANIC FLUID MILK PRODUCTS AND CREAM BY POOL PLANTS (Million pounds) in FMMO 32 (Central) |
|||||||
|
Month |
2024 |
2024 in order |
2024 out of order |
2023 |
2023 in order |
2023 out of order |
2022 |
|
January |
56.23 |
6.41 |
49.82 |
55.21 |
6.51 |
48.70 |
|
|
February |
51.88 |
5.77 |
46.12 |
49.11 |
5.49 |
43.63 |
|
|
March |
53.96 |
5.93 |
46.29 |
52.73 |
5.59 |
45.44 |
|
|
April |
54.13 |
6.04 |
48.09 |
49.18 |
5.64 |
43.53 |
51.93 |
|
May |
51.32 |
5.81 |
45.51 |
48.21 |
5.40 |
42.78 |
51.13 |
|
June |
52.56 |
5.51 |
47.04 |
45.20 |
5.57 |
39.63 |
51.58 |
|
July |
52.68 |
5.63 |
47.04 |
48.45 |
5.70 |
42.75 |
49.67 |
|
August |
55.63 |
6.26 |
49.37 |
48.47 |
5.63 |
42.85 |
52.16 |
|
September |
50.68 |
5.41 |
45.27 |
48.76 |
5.58 |
43.18 |
51.04 |
|
October |
|
|
|
49.73 |
5.65 |
42.48 |
52.06 |
|
November |
|
|
|
49.60 |
5.48 |
44.12 |
52.31 |
|
December |
|
|
|
54.17 |
6.08 |
48.10 |
55.94 |
|
Total |
|
|
|
598.82 |
68.31 |
527.18 |
|
Anecdotal reports from producers are that the sale price of young, organic milking cows are in the $4,000 range and A/2 cows fetching as much as $6,000 each. In recent reports from a NOFA-NY-certified livestock auction in New Berlin, New York, organic cull cows consistently sold above conventional cows in September and October 2024. The average price for conventional cull cows ranged from a low of $101/cwt to a high of $119 /cwt. The average price for organic cull cows ranged from a low of $101/cwt at one auction to a high of $125/cwt, with most auction prices over $115 per cwt. Calf prices are still strong but no premium for organic. Organic milking cows were selling well at an average of $1,386-$2,700 each in September and October 2024. In a recent report by USDA from a Pacific Northwest livestock auction, the top 10 organic cull cows and the overall average for organic cull cows traded higher than conventional cull cows. The average price for the top 10 organic cows auctioned was $140.14 per hundredweight, compared to an average of $125.86 per hundredweight for auctioned top 10 conventional cows. The average weight for the top 10 organic cows was 1512.0 pounds compared to 1595.0 pounds for the top 10 conventional cows. The overall price for organic cows auctioned was $119.09 per hundredweight with an average weight of 1249.5 pounds, while the overall price for conventional cows auctioned was $100.92 hundredweight with an average weight of 1258.2 pounds.
The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) releases monthly export data which includes export volumes and values for organic milk categorized as HS-10 code 0401201000. Data for July 2024 indicated organic milk exports were 526,118 liters (1,195,340lbs.), up 87.6 percent from the month prior, and up 114.5 percent from 2023.Recently released data for August 2024 indicated organic milk exports were 291,236 liters (661,688 lbs.), down 44.6 percent from the month prior, and down 4.5 percent from 2023. Exports of organic milk from the start of the year through August are up 24.5 percent, compared to the same period one year ago.
National data from USDA and Argus has organic feed corn delivered to the elevator averaging $6.24 per bushel on the east coast in October 2024, down approximately $2/bu. from 12 months prior. Organic feed soybean delivered to the elevator averaged $21.12/bu. in October 2024, up approximately $1.10/bu. from 12 months prior. Soybean meal is currently trading at $889/ton, about $95/cwt. lower than 2023 and is in high demand, with the price projected by Argus to increase. Costs for organic Alfalfa are about the same as conventional, at $260 per ton, which is down nearly $110 from October 2023 as reported by USDA.
Attached Files:
Posted: to Organic Pay, Feed & Grain Prices on Sun, Nov 3, 2024
Updated: Sun, Jan 12, 2025
